Via Freedom's Lighthouse. On their site, they said they will continue to update the map as it gets close to the 2012 election. Looks like right now, it's a toss up.
Here is the 2012 Electoral Vote Map, updated to take into account the results of the 2010 Census. We have shaded the states according to our current estimate of how the state is likely to vote in the November 2012 General Election. States that we consider “battleground,” or “tossup” states we have shaded in green.
As you can see, President Obama starts out with a significant advantage – largely due to his virtual lock on California and New York. Those two states give him 84 Electoral Votes, nearly one-third of what he needs to win. At this point we have the Electoral Vote totals as follows:
238 – Likely Obama Votes
191 – Likely GOP Votes
109 – Battleground Votes
The outcome of the Election will likely be fought out in these nine states with a total of 109 Electoral Votes: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
If the GOP candidate can win these Battleground States – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio, he or she will have 266 votes – just four short of victory. Those four could come from any of the remaining Battleground States.